Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections. The Operation Sindoor was launched on May 7, 2025, as a punitive strike against terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir following the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26/28 people. A ceasefire was agreed upon on May 10, 2025, after four days of intense cross-border skirmishes. Trump claimed of mediating through trade-off negotiations. It was argued that the ceasefire was less about statesmanship and more about political necessity for Narendra Modi. The abruptness and lack of transparency with which the ceasefire was accepted fuelled scepticism. This raised questions about whether the ceasefire was a statesman-like move or a response to external or internal pressures or political expediency.
The Ceasefire and Trade-Off with Trump
The ceasefire and Modi’s silence on Trump’s mediation claims are seen as a trade-off to secure U.S. support for initiatives like Starlink’s entry into India and potential cryptocurrency policy shifts to counter China’s economic influence and may be Adani issue.
India’s reported consideration of Starlink’s entry aligns with Modi’s Digital India push. Allowing Starlink could enhance rural connectivity, appealing to voters in states like Bihar, while positioning India as a tech hub. It is more to woo Bihar electorate than Indias growth and development.
Speculation about Modi sanctioning cryptocurrency transactions to counter China may align with Modi’s broader strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese technology and finance. A pro-crypto move may appeal to younger, tech-savvy electorate.
Delegations for Operation Sindoor
Post-Operation Sindoor, Modi deputed seven all-party parliamentary delegations to 32 countries, including UNSC members, starting May 23, 2025. The inclusion of opposition leaders was a carefull move, signalling bipartisan unity. By involving opposition leaders, Modi presented a national consensus on a critical security issue, reinforcing India’s unity to the world. The delegations’ visits to key capitals, including BAPS Hindu Mandir in Abu Dhabi, also highlighted cultural diplomacy alongside strategic messaging.
The move was interpreted as a strategic effort to co-opt the opposition, neutralizing domestic criticism while projecting Modi’s image as a unifying leader. The delegation’s statesman-like look was thwarted by questions about transparency and intent.
‘Team India’ at NITI Aayog
The 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council meeting on May 24, 2025, saw Modi discusscussing with chief ministers, including opposition leaders like Tamil Nadu’s M.K. Stalin and Jharkhand’s Hemant Soren. The meeting focused on the ‘Viksit Rajya for Viksit Bharat@2047’ vision, with unanimous support for Operation Sindoor and calls for states to remove investment bottlenecks and develop global tourist destinations. Modi emphasized Centre-state cooperation, comparing it to “Team India.”
The opposition’s demands during the meeting, such as the release of Rs 1.40 lakh crore owed by mining companies and addressing “step-motherly treatment” of non-BJP states, indicate underlying tensions. The “Team India” proposition may be a strategic attempt to project unity while glossing over governance critiques, such as the opposition’s call for a special parliamentary session on Operation Sindoor. Some see this as Modi showcasing his image ahead of Bihar elections, rather than a genuine call for unity.
The “Team India” call at the NITI Aayog meeting is framed as a platform to push Modi’s ambition of making India a $5 trillion economy by 2028. Modi’s call for states to step-in with national goals aligns directly to his economic vision, which he has not consistently championed since 2014.
The $5 trillion economy narrative is to outwit domestic issues like unemployment and inflation, which Rahul Gandhi and the opposition often highlight. The “Team India” projection may be less about genuine federalism and more about creating a unified narrative to counter opposition attacks on economic mismanagement and communal disharmony.
Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections – Revamping the Cabinet
After 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP won 240 seats and relied on the crutches of JD(U) and TDP, speculation about cabinet reshuffles has grown. The current cabinet, announced June 9, 2024, retained key figures. A cabinet revamp could refresh Modi’s government, accommodate coalition demands (e.g., JD(U) in Bihar), and project dynamism ahead of the Bihar election. It could also elevate loyalists or new faces to counterbalance Yogi Adityanath’s influence and manage succession speculation. By reshuffling, Modi could address criticisms of governance stagnation, as raised by Rahul Gandhi, while aligning the cabinet with his Viksit Bharat@2047 vision.
Replacing Shah with Nirmala Sitharaman
Nirmala Sitharaman, retained as Finance Minister in the June 2024 cabinet, is a loyal Modi ally with no independent political base, making her a reliable choice for a high-profile role like Home Minister. Her handling of the economy, despite criticism over unemployment and inflation, has matched with Modi’s Viksit Bharat vision.
Appointing Sitharaman would signal continuity of Modi’s agenda, as her loyalty ensures no rival power centre emerges. It could also counter opposition narratives of authoritarianism by elevating a non-controversial figure to a key role, appealing to moderates and urban voters. Sitharaman’s technocratic image could help manage the fallout from Operation Sindoor or Bihar’s electoral challenges, framing Modi’s leadership as inclusive and forward-looking show. If Modi continues beyond 2029, she could be considered for the next post of the President of India, a move that would enhance the Tamil Nadu electorate to the support of BJP.
Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections – Fooling the Bihar Electorate
Modi’s actions are seen as a show to appeal to Bihar’s electorate, a crucial state in national politics, to maintain the BJP’s winning spree and set the stage for a 2029 election comeback, surprising Rahul Gandhi and the opposition. Bihar, with 40 Lok Sabha seats, is a key electoral ground. The BJP-JD(U) alliance has historically performed well, but the continued tensions with Nitish Kumar and Rahul Gandhi’s focus on caste-based mobilization pose challenges, though Modi has decided to carry out the caste census, another political move of Modi.
The Bihar Assembly election, expected by late 2025, is vital due to Bihar’s 243 Assembly seats and 40 Lok Sabha seats, which significantly influence national politics. The BJP, allied with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) in the NDA, won 30 of 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 but faced setbacks compared to 2019 (39 seats). Modi’s focus on Bihar is evident from his Operation Sindoor’s political canvassing and development promises.
Installing a BJP Chief Minister would reduce dependency on Nitish Kumar, whose unpredictability make him an unreliable partner. A BJP-led government in Bihar would strengthen Modi’s regional control, boost the party’s image ahead of 2029, and appeal to voters with promises like housing for the poor and a $5 trillion economy and the Operation Sindoor.
The BJP faces challenges from the RJD-Congress alliance, led by Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, which capitalizes on caste dynamics and economic grievances. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) holds significant sway, and replacing him with a BJP Chief Minister requires a decisive victory, which is uncertain given 2024 trends and anti – incumbency over local issues like unemployment.
Mid-Term Elections
A Bihar victory and Operation Sindoor’s patriotic showmanship could prompt Modi to seek a fresh all India mandate, capitalizing on nationalistic sentiment to counter the 2024 setback. The Mid-term elections could allow Modi to regain a BJP majority, reducing reliance on allies and neutralizing opposition momentum arising from Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav.
The BJP’s 2024 performance, coupled with losses in Uttar Pradesh (33 seats vs. 62 in 2019), indicates voter discontent over economic issues and caste dynamics, which Rahul Gandhi has exploited. However, NDA allies like JD(U) and TDP may oppose early elections if their interests are threatened, and the opposition’s 2024 gains suggest a competitive fight.
Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections – Neutralizing Yogi Adityanath
Yogi Adityanath, Uttar Pradesh’s Chief Minister, whose 2024 Uttar Pradesh losses (33 seats vs. 62 in 2019) weakened his stature but not his Hindutva base. Assigning Shah to Gujarat and elevating Sitharaman could further marginalize Yogi by promoting loyalists and shifting focus from his polarizing rhetoric. Neutralizing Yogi aligns with managing succession, but Shah’s “rest” and Sitharaman’s elevation are Modi’s best bet.
Yogi Adityanath is a challenging personality with a strong Hindutva base, seen as a competitor to Modi. His 2022 re-election strengthened his stature, but the 2024 Lok Sabha losses in Uttar Pradesh smashed his image, with analysts blaming him for the BJP’s poor show. Reports suggest differences with Modi and Amit Shah, with Shah reportedly viewing Yogi as an obstacle to his own succession ambitions. Yogi’s strong base in Uttar Pradesh, rooted in the Gorakhnath Math and his “bulldozer” governance, makes sidelining him challenging.
Yogi matches with Modi’s need to control succession, especially with Amit Shah as the preferred heir. A Bihar win and cabinet reshuffle could promote alternative leaders, but Yogi’s RSS backing and Hindutva appeal limit outright marginalization. Modi’s strategy likely involves subtle containment rather than direct confrontation, preserving party unity while keeping Yogi in check.
Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections – Resting Amit Shah
Amit Shah, Union Home Minister and Modi’s closest ally, is a kingpin of the BJP’s electoral and organizational strategy, credited with the party’s 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha victories. His retention as Home Minister in the June 2024 cabinet and his 7.4 lakh vote margin in Gandhinagar underscore his indispensability.
Shah’s organizational skills and control over party operations make him essential, especially with the Bihar Assembly election nearing and the BJP’s dependency on NDA allies, mainly when the BJP got 240 seats in 2024, short of a majority. A “rest” risks disrupting party unity and alienating Shah’s supporters, particularly in Gujarat, where he remains influential. The idea of resting Shah as a media manoeuvre digests with Modi’s strategy.
Amit Shah to Gujarat to Counter Congress Resurgence
Gujarat, Modi’s and Shah’s home state, has been a BJP stronghold since 1995, but Congress showed signs of resurgence in 2024, winning 4 of 26 Lok Sabha seats (up from 0 in 2019). Shah’s Gandhinagar victory and his strong ties to Gujarat’s BJP machinery make him a natural choice to reinforce dominance.
Deputing Shah to Gujarat would strengthen his organizational faculties to counter Congress’s gains, particularly among rural and OBC voters. Shah’s 2014-2019 strategies (e.g., booth-level mobilization) could neutralize Rahul Gandhi’s narrative and prevent the INDIA bloc from gaining ground. The BJP’s continued dominance, hasten the urgency of Shah’s reassignment. A temporary Gujarat focus could be framed as a strategic retreat.
Bringing Amit Shah Back Post-2029
Amit Shah is seen as the top choice to succeed Modi. Modi may temporarily “give rest” to Shah to manage internal dynamics, only to reinstate him in future. Temporarily sidelining Shah could serve multiple purposes- diffusing succession tensions, allowing Modi to elevate new leaders in a cabinet reshuffle, and neutralizing Yogi’s ambitions by keeping Shah’s return as a trump card. Shah’s reinstatement after 2029 would ensure continuity of Modi’s legacy to secure a fourth NDA term.
Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections – Surprising Rahul Gandhi
Modi’s actions are designed to out-manoeuvre Rahul Gandhi, who has emerged as a vocal critic, by projecting statesmanship and national unity, setting up for a surprise BJP victory in 2029. Modi’s inclusive moves (opposition delegations, NITI Aayog unity call) could blur Rahul Gandhi’s stress of divisive governance. Rahul Gandhi’s focus on economic inequality and governance failures may lose momentum if Modi delivers on high-profile initiatives like Starlink or projected economic growth.
Rahul Gandhi’s improved performance in 2024 and his focus on caste census and economic issues have made him a fierce opponent. Rahul Gandhi’s focus on Bihar’s caste dynamics and local issues, backed by RJD’s. Modi’s perceived nationalistic appeal and development promises may attract voters, but economic grievances and coalition dynamics could limit his success. Modi’s strategy could counter Rahul Gandhi by projecting unity and strength, but Bihar’s complex electorate and opposition mobilization make this uncertain.
Devastating Congress and Wrecking the INDIA Bloc
The INDIA bloc, including Congress, RJD, and SP, gained ground in 2024 (234 seats vs. NDA’s 293), with Congress improving to 99 seats from 52 in 2019. Rahul Gandhi’s focus on caste census, economic distress, and governance critiques (e.g., Operation Sindoor’s transparency) has ignited his appeal, particularly in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Shah’s return after 2029 would conform to his electoral expertise to secure a fourth NDA term, dismantling Congress and fragmenting the INDIA bloc.
By “resting” Shah, Modi could create a narrative of renewal, win Bihar, and pursue a strong 2029 mandate, with Shah returning to lead the charge against Congress. A Bihar victory with a BJP Chief Minister would weaken RJD and Congress, key INDIA bloc partners, while Shah’s Gujarat focus could prevent Congress’s revival, ensuring BJP dominance. By this plan Modi would like to devastate Congress by exposing its organizational weaknesses and fragment the INDIA bloc’s frail unity.
Devastating Congress and the INDIA bloc has been a long-term BJP goal, and Shah’s electoral expertise makes him critical for 2029. Temporarily deputing him to Gujarat could counter Congress’s resurgence, but the plan’s success lies on Bihar’s outcome and economic success.
Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections – Modi’s Political Strategy: Stepping Back to Strike?
Modi is known for bold political moves and strategic retreats that set the stage for his resurgence, often catching opponents off-guard. Critics and supporters alike note his ability to sizzle from confrontation to conciliation, as seen in past instances like the 2019 Balakot airstrike followed by diplomatic outreach and internal political incoherence.
The call for “Team India” is designed to surprise Rahul Gandhi, who has been critical about Modi’s governance style, while setting up a plank of unity to bolster his image. Modi has undertaken political tours of India particularly Bihar is a clear sign in this direction.
Rahul Gandhi has not directly commented on these specific moves but Congress leaders like Pawan Khera have criticized Modi’s silence on Trump’s mediation claims and the lack of parliamentary debate on Operation Sindoor. The Congress has hurled its counter attacks on the moves of Modi. Rahul Gandhi, may still capitalize on perceived weaknesses, like Modi’s silence on Trump’s claims, to rally their base.
Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections – A Glitter Before Departure?
Modi may be flaring a “glitter before departure” shaping his legacy as his tenure progresses. The Operation Sindoor, the Ceasefire, and Modi’s political gestures could be seen as efforts to reassert his image as a decisive yet unifying leader.
On the contrary, Modi’s moves could be attributed to strengthen Modi’s domestic and international standing amid challenges. Critics point to his silence on Trump’s mediation claims and the lack of parliamentary debate as signs of managing politics rather than showing transparency. The opposition’s inclusion may neutralize their ability to criticize, while the NITI Aayog’s unity display counters perceptions of authoritarianism.
Narendra Modi becomes statesman-like and poses a secular character to win the Bihar elections – The Conclusion
Modi’s recent actions reflect a blend of statesmanship-like and political opportunism. The ceasefire demonstrated trade compulsions. The opposition delegations projected national unity. The NITI Aayog’s “Team India” call fosters federal cooperation but sidesteps governance critiques. Modi’s moves reflect his image building exercises as an undisputed leader among his cadres. The moves also serve strategic goals of consolidating power and shaping global perceptions. Modi’s past suggests a focus on long-term strategy over desperate face-saving attempts.
Modi will neither relinquish his power nor has he developed alternative leadership, though Amit Shah is his alter ego but Modi does not hand over his power to him, as Modi is a rare breed of an Indian political leader who loves none but himself and his power.
Modi’s immediate goal of winning Bihar and installing a BJP Chief Minister is imperative to strengthen regional control and counter opposition narratives, but caste dynamics and Nitish Kumar’s influence pose challenges.
A cabinet revamp is likely for refreshing governance and managing coalition demands, while surely curbing Yogi Adityanath’s national ambitions. Neutralizing Yogi aligns with controlling succession, but his RSS backing limits Modi’s manoeuvrability.